Oriental Securities: Maintains "Buy" rating on SAIC Motor Group with a target price of 23.75 yuan.
The research report from Orient Securities pointed out that SAIC Group is in a leading position in the industry in terms of exports, and is expected to maintain stable growth in the future, which is an important part of the company's profitability. The company has been the champion of Chinese automobile exports for 8 consecutive years from 2016 to 2023, and the overseas sales ratio is expected to increase from 2.5% in 2017 to 25.9% in 2024. It is expected that with the price difference in exports and improved operational efficiency, the profitability of overseas models will be higher than domestic ones. It is believed that the growth in exports and the introduction of higher value-added models will promote the enhancement of overseas profitability, making the overseas market an important component of the company's sales and profitability. The market is concerned that the EU's imposition of anti-subsidy taxes on electric vehicles will affect the company's exports, but it is believed that the company can offset the shortfall in pure electric vehicle sales by introducing hybrid new products. It is predicted that new hybrid models and the expansion into new regions will be the main growth points. It is expected that the adjustment of SAIC's international organizational structure will enhance its export profitability. The forecasted EPS for 2025-2027 are 0.95, 1.03, and 1.15 yuan respectively. Maintaining a 25-year average PE valuation of comparable companies at 25 times, the target price is 23.75 yuan, and a "buy" rating is maintained.
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