UOB predicts that the subsidy war will last at least until Double 11.

UBS expects that the current competitive situation will last at least until this year's Singles' Day. Chen Liteng, an analyst at the E-commerce Research Center of NetEase, stated that for businesses, the impact of the subsidy war is showing temporary differences. In the short term, the surge in orders brings operational pressure: small and medium-sized businesses may face the phenomenon of "exploding orders," but they need to bear some of the subsidy costs, coupled with a sharp increase in raw material consumption and a shortage of manpower, which may lead to delays in meal delivery and a decline in quality. In the long term, the industry will accelerate consolidation. Market concentration will shift towards top companies with high supply chain efficiency and strong brand power. At the same time, regulatory intervention forces platforms to optimize subsidy structures and reduce the burden on businesses. Continuous subsidies erode profits, and the competitive landscape is shifting from a "capital war" to an "efficiency war." The real winners need to balance user demand for low prices, rider rights protection, and sustainable profitability for businesses, rather than relying solely on price wars.