Institution: The minutes of the Fed's June meeting reveal disagreements on inflation assessment.
Institutional analysis indicates that the minutes of the June meeting of the Federal Reserve reflect intense debates on the future inflation path, and significant uncertainty in price trends. Some committee members continue to worry about inflation prospects, believing that tariffs may disrupt the supply chain, drag down productivity, and trigger a vicious cycle by pushing up medium- to long-term inflation expectations. Another faction of members holds a relatively optimistic stance, pointing out that reaching a trade agreement and proactive adjustment of the supply chain may cushion the impact. The minutes of the meeting specifically mention, "Participants reported a series of assessments from business contacts regarding the degree to which tariff-related costs are passed on to consumers." In short, while there are multiple diverging views, it is difficult to reach a definitive conclusion.
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