Research: The slowing growth led by consumption is the biggest risk facing the outlook of the US economy.

Consumer spending, as the main driver of the US economy, slowed significantly in the first half of the year, raising concerns about the economic growth outlook. GDP is expected to rebound in the second quarter, but mainly due to a mechanical rebound from the shrinking trade deficit. Although tariff uncertainty has caused consumers to be cautious, the actual impact on consumer prices is limited. Nevertheless, consumer spending remains sluggish, indicating that consumption may face further downside risks in the second half of the year. We expect real GDP growth to slow to around 1.0% in the second half of the year.