In the first half of the year, oil prices fluctuated greatly. Will the second half of the year be calm and steady?

With the cooling of the situation in the Middle East, the volatility of oil prices has significantly decreased in the past week. What are the reasons for this? What policies at the macro level will affect oil prices in the future? What is the trend of oil prices in the second half of the year? Dong Chao, an analyst at the futures energy and chemical division of Shenyin Wanguo Securities, mentioned that after the Middle East issue is resolved, the heat in the crude oil market will decrease. Focus on the US tax reduction bill and the pace of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts. OPEC is probably going to continue increasing production, so oil prices are expected to decline in the second half of the year.