JPMorgan: Oil market pricing indicates a 20% risk of disruption in Persian Gulf shipments.

"The possibility of a significant disruption in Gulf energy exports, which is currently factored into the oil market, is estimated at 20%," Morgan Stanley analyst Natasha Kaneva stated in a report. The bank reiterated that such a disruption could "push crude oil prices to the $120-130 range." However, "global oil supply is sufficient," and this supply-demand balance provides support for the bank's current oil price forecast. The bank expects the average price of Brent crude in the second quarter to be $67 per barrel, and if geopolitical risks dissipate, prices will fall to $60 per barrel.