Market research company BCA Research warns: There is a high probability of a recession in the US economy this year and US stocks may plummet by 25%.

As the 90-day "tariff deferral period" set by President Trump of the United States approaches, investors' concerns have intensified in recent days. Peter Berezin, an analyst at market research firm BCA Research, predicts that the U.S. economy is highly likely to enter a recession this year, and U.S. stocks will also experience a significant decline. "I have reduced the possibility of a recession from 75% to 60%, although the probability of a recession has decreased significantly, it is still my basic expectation. Under this basic expectation, I expect the S&P 500 index to drop to around 4500 points," he said in a recent interview. This means that the S&P 500 index will fall by 25% from last Friday's closing price. Although 4,500 points may sound like a significant drop from near historical highs in the stock market, Berezin believes that it won't take much to trigger such a decline. "It is currently difficult to be very optimistic about the stock market or the economy," he said.