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Morgan Stanley released a research report stating that based on Cathay Pacific Airways turning losses into profits, the earnings per share forecast for Swire Pacific Limited for the years 2025 to 2027 has been raised by 6%, 4%, and 3% respectively. However, considering the escalation of global trade tensions, the expected profit margin of Cathay may have peaked, which could temporarily halt the positive impact on the profit recovery of Swire. Morgan Stanley estimates that the dividend payout of Swire in 2025 will increase by 4%, with the full-year forecast for dividend yield decreasing to 5%, below the industry average. Although the valuation level remains attractive, the lack of short-term catalysts for stock price growth has led to a downgrade in investment rating from "hold" to "market perform," and the target price is also lowered from HK$75 to HK$71.
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