The conflict in Iran triggered the market to seek alternatives to oil, causing a surge in biofuel prices.
After the conflict in Ukraine pushed up energy costs and the Trump administration proposed increasing the amount of biofuels in diesel and gasoline, the prices of palm oil and soybean oil soared. Since last Thursday, soybean oil prices have risen by 11% to over 55 cents per pound, the highest level since October 2023. Due to oversupply, palm oil prices have been falling this year, but have risen by over 6% this week to nearly 4100 ringgit per ton. Darren Lim, commodity strategist at Singapore brokerage firm Phillip Nova, said, "The main reason for the price increase is the rise in energy prices and crude oil prices due to this conflict." "Rising energy prices have pushed up palm oil production costs and also increased potential demand for biofuels as they are an alternative energy source." Charles Hart, senior commodity analyst at Dutch bank Rabobank, said, "When you combine these two aspects, it is very bullish news for U.S. soybean oil." He also pointed out that data from the National Oilseed Processors Association showed that as of the end of May, U.S. soybean oil stocks had fallen to 1.37 billion pounds, a 20% decrease from the same period last year, the lowest level for May since 2004. He added, "Driven by policies, domestic demand is increasing, and rising crude oil prices and tightening supplies are also providing support."
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