Lates News

date
19/06/2025
Citic Securities' research report selected eight major conflicts in the Middle East since 1970 to analyze how each Middle East war has impacted the price trends of major asset classes. In terms of safe-haven assets, compared to the US dollar, the price of gold is significantly affected by Middle East wars. Geopolitical factors have a more pronounced catalytic effect on gold, with the temporary catalytic effect of geopolitical factors on gold concentrated in the first 10 days of the outbreak of war, and whether there are expectations before the war has a key impact on price reactions. In terms of energy, three oil crises have been triggered by Middle East wars, but in the long term, the impact of Middle East wars on global oil prices is gradually weakening. Historical patterns show that if the war causes oil prices to rise by more than 50% before the war, it may trigger an economic recession in the United States. As for US stocks, if the United States is not directly involved in the war, the emotional disturbances to US stocks in the early stages of the war will be repaired in about one week. If the United States participates in the war, the emotional repair of US stocks will depend on the clarity of the situation. In terms of Chinese assets, due to the lack of a clear transmission mechanism, emotional disturbances on the day of the outbreak of war are often repaired the next day.