CITIC Securities: In the long term, the impact of Middle East wars on global oil prices is gradually diminishing.

CITIC Securities research report selected eight major conflicts in the Middle East since 1970, analyzing how each Middle East war has affected the price trend of major asset classes. In terms of safe-haven assets, compared to the US dollar, the price of gold is more significantly affected by Middle East wars. Geopolitical factors have a temporary catalyzing effect on gold, concentrated in the first 10 days of the outbreak of war, and the existence of pre-war expectations have a key impact on price reaction. In terms of energy, all three oil crises were triggered by Middle East wars, but the long-term impact of Middle East wars on global oil prices is gradually diminishing; historical patterns show that if war causes oil prices to rise by more than 50% above pre-war levels, it may trigger an economic recession in the United States. As for US stocks, if the US is not directly involved in the war, the emotional disturbance to US stocks in the first 1-3 weeks of the war is usually repaired in about one week; if the US participates in the war, the emotional recovery of US stocks depends on the clarity of the situation. In terms of Chinese assets, due to the lack of a clear transmission mechanism, emotional disturbances on the day of the war are usually repaired the following day.