CITIC Securities: Still expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates no more than 2 times this year.

CITIC Securities research report pointed out that the Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged at the June 2025 meeting, in line with market expectations. The dot plot for this meeting showed a target central rate of 3.9% for this year, unchanged from the March dot plot, once again raising inflation and unemployment rate forecasts for this year, and reducing economic growth forecasts. Powell's speech was relatively flat, with a slightly hawkish overall attitude. The key points of this meeting are the contradictions between the statement and the SEP, as well as the divergence in the dot plot. Faced with uncertain tariff policies, the Federal Reserve as a whole has shifted towards controlling inflation risks. We still expect the Fed to cut interest rates fewer than or equal to 2 times this year, or may cut rates again at the September meeting. In the short term, we expect limited downside potential for the US dollar index, and suggest that the US stock market continue to focus on the AI sector and "core assets" such as MAG7 for a rebound trend. 10-year US Treasury bonds have some trading value when interest rates are above 4.5%.