CICC: The next interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve may be in the fourth quarter.

The research report from Zhongjin Company pointed out that the Federal Reserve remained on hold at its June meeting, in line with market expectations. Officials believe that policy uncertainty has decreased, but they have still lowered growth forecasts and raised inflation path judgments. The dot plot maintains the judgment of two rate cuts this year, but the details have become "hawkish", showing a cautious view within the Federal Reserve. Powell remains cautious about inflation risks and stated that nobody has strong confidence in the rate path they have written down. We believe that the Federal Reserve has no intention of cutting rates quickly, and decision-makers will not act rashly in the face of inflation as long as the economy allows waiting. We maintain our previous view that the next rate cut by the Federal Reserve may come in the fourth quarter.