Key points summary of Powell's routine press conference on June 18th.

1. Monetary policy: No one has high confidence in these interest rate paths. Interest rates are not very high, policy has a moderate restrictive effect, and it is difficult to know how to react before understanding the impact of tariffs. Interest rates are not very high, policy has a moderate restrictive effect. The labor market does not require the Fed to cut rates. It is certain that raising rates is not a basic assumption. 2. Overall economic situation: Economic uncertainty has fallen but remains relatively high, seeming to be at a level of growth of 1.5%-2.0%. The economy has always been resilient, to some extent due to the Fed's stance. 3. Inflation issues: We expect to see a lot of inflation in the coming months. Inflation is somewhat higher than the 2% target. Inflation data falling is somewhat related to the cooling of the housing market. The impact of tariffs on consumers takes time. We are starting to see the impact of tariffs, and we expect to see more. Many companies expect to pass on the cost of tariffs. There may be an increase in energy prices due to the situation in the Middle East, but energy shocks will not cause sustained inflation effects. 4. Labor market: We can see that the job market is cooling, but there is nothing to worry about. With a decrease in immigration, the labor supply is dwindling. Artificial intelligence may be creating jobs while also replacing employment opportunities. It is difficult to find a job, but few people are being laid off. 5. Tariffs: The scale, extent, and duration of the impact of tariffs are highly uncertain. It is impossible to determine whether the inflation impact related to tariffs will be one-time. 6. Policy framework assessment: The Fed's policy framework should not depend on who holds the position of Fed chair. Discussions on the policy framework involve communication of policies externally. After the framework assessment, improvements to the SEP will be considered. 7. Personal decision making: Declined to comment on whether he will continue to serve as a Fed governor after his term as Fed chair ends in 2026.