Morningstar: If the grid pattern suggests that there will be no interest rate cut this year, the interpretation will be "fairly hawkish."

Analysts from Morningstar said that economic forecasts are always difficult, but the Federal Reserve's situation this summer is particularly challenging. The Fed's last forecast was released before President Trump's announcement on potential market-affecting tariffs on March 2. At that time, the FOMC predicted two rate cuts by 2025. Since then, sticky inflation, the impact of tariff increases, as well as possible policy and regulatory changes by the Trump administration have disrupted the outlook. Therefore, analysts suggest that there may be fewer rate cuts this year. They mentioned that a single rate cut in 2025 would not be surprising. Bond futures traders have significantly delayed their expectations for rate cuts this year. Analysts mentioned that they would be more surprised by a dot plot showing no rate cuts at all, which would be interpreted as "fairly hawkish."