Nomura Securities: Insists that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will cut interest rates in July.

Nomura Securities maintains its non-consensus forecast, believing that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will cut rates by 25 basis points on July 9, but acknowledges uncertainty in this decision, with the probability of a rate cut in July estimated at around 60%. Nomura economist Andrew Ticehurst stated that if the rate cut occurs in July, the Reserve Bank is expected to complement the relatively hawkish policy communication, sending signals that it is shifting to a wait-and-see position, and may complete the easing cycle after a total of 250 basis points of aggressive rate cuts.