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Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Zezas and his colleagues wrote that the "Beautiful Big Act" that the U.S. Republican Congress is working hard to pass at the request of President Trump will increase the deficit, but may not have as big of an impact on promoting economic growth. Nominal expansionary provisions such as tax cuts may not have such a clear effect, as they largely just extend current policies. On the other hand, spending cuts in the form of cutting medical subsidies in the bill may have a direct negative impact on economic growth. Therefore, Morgan Stanley expects the bill to be a fiscal drag on GDP in the medium to long term. Modifications by the Senate may push the bill in a direction more favorable to growth.
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