Lates News

If we take the past conflicts between Iran and Iraq as a reference, the latest round of conflict may continue to put pressure on the 10-year US Treasury yields. Since last Friday, when the tension between Iran and Iraq escalated into direct conflict, the US benchmark bond yields have increased by 9 basis points, exacerbated by soaring oil prices and heightened inflation concerns. Institutional analysis shows that in April 2024, when Iran launched a direct attack, and last October when the two countries clashed again, US bond yields also rose rapidly and remained high for the following 30 days. Carlos Casanova, Senior Asian Economist at Union Bancaire Prive Hong Kong, says that market volatility is high, with investors flocking to safe-haven assets and driving up oil prices, potentially leading to further increases in the 10-year US Treasury yields. For US bond investors, the current situation poses multiple risks: the trade war launched by President Trump exacerbating inflation concerns, and the continuing deterioration of the US debt problem. As tensions in the Middle East impact energy prices, market traders demanding higher risk premiums may continue to push up yields.