Analyst: With tensions escalating in Iran, the Fed's interest rate cut plan may change.
The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current interest rate levels in its latest decision this week. The focus of the market will be on whether the Fed will release any signals about the timing of future rate cuts. Recently released CPI and PPI data have been weaker than expected, prompting market participants to anticipate an earlier rate cut. The possibility of a rate cut in October has already been fully priced in by the money market, with a significant probability of action being taken as early as September. Previously, the market widely expected a rate cut to occur in December. Citigroup analysts point out that the market may currently underestimate the risk of rate cuts. However, the imposition of additional tariffs by the United States may increase inflation, and if tensions in the Middle East escalate further, leading to continued oil price increases, this may further delay the Fed's rate cut pace. Allianz analysts state that in the context of high inflation, the Fed is unlikely to ease its monetary policy hastily.
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