Non-farm data is about to come: the bond market is betting on a 90% probability of interest rate cut in September, awaiting key signals of the Federal Reserve's policy shift.

Zhitong Finance and Economics App learned that bond traders will carefully analyze the May employment report to capture signs of weakness in the labor market and determine the timing of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. On Thursday, weekly initial jobless claims in the United States unexpectedly surged to an eight-month high, pushing US bond yields briefly to near a one-month low. Based on this, traders have almost fully priced in expectations of a rate cut in September (previously expected in October). Although traders still expect the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates later this month, significant surprises in Friday's non-farm payroll data may prompt them to readjust their expectations.