Capital Economics: Canadian exports will remain at a low level for the remainder of 2025.

Macro Capital believes that Canada's trade data for April marks the peak of weakness for domestic exporters and importers. With Canadian exporters completing compliance measures under the USMCA to avoid the 25% high tariffs imposed by the United States, there may be room for a rebound in the coming months. However, Macro Capital predicts that unless US President Trump's trade policies ease, Canadian exports are expected to remain at low levels for the remainder of 2025. In nominal terms, exports in April decreased by 10.8%, adjusted for a 9.1% decrease. Exports in 10 out of 11 industries experienced record declines, with the automotive and industrial machinery sectors seeing the largest drops. Macro Capital adds that the poor trade data in April puts at risk the expectation of a 0.1% quarter-on-quarter growth in Canada's GDP.