Institution Outlook: European Central Bank Interest Rate Resolution - As the loose monetary policy period comes to an end, when will the ECB "pull back"?

1. Goldman Sachs: Expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, keep the GDP forecast for this year unchanged, lower the GDP forecast for next year, and significantly lower the inflation forecast. 2. UBS: Expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, with the last rate cut in July, bringing the rate down to 1.75%. There may be a need to raise rates by the end of 2026 to address inflation risks. 3. Bank of America: Expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, the market has already digested the recent rate cut decision by the European Central Bank, the meeting is unlikely to have a significant impact on the euro. 4. ING: Expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, the market has fully digested the expectation of a 25 basis point cut by the ECB, the euro is more likely to continue to be dominated by the dollar. 5. Credit Suisse: Expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, will assess the urgency of further rate cuts after June, expected to have the last rate cut in September, but not set in stone. 6. Nomura Securities: Expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, expected to further cut rates in July and September to 1.50%, revise up the GDP forecast for this year and lower the inflation forecast for this year. 7. Berenberg: Expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, may then keep rates unchanged, largely depending on trade negotiations between the EU and the US. 8. Mitsubishi UFJ: Expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, forward guidance will remain largely unchanged, the threshold for further rate cuts may be higher, the ECB may slow down the pace of easing. 9. Natixis: Expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, may suggest a pause in rate cuts in July, slightly lower GDP forecasts for this year and next, as well as overall and core inflation forecasts. 10. BNP Paribas: Expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, the timing of the next rate cut may be postponed until at least September, not ruling out the possibility of ending rate cuts after June or cutting rates again in December. 11. Morgan Stanley: May slightly raise the GDP forecast for this year; even if the core inflation forecast is slightly raised, overall inflation may continue to be below the 2% target from mid-2025 to early 2027. 12. Deutsche Bank: Expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, the terminal rate in the easing cycle should remain at 1.50%, or start raising rates again by the end of 2026, increasing the rate to 1.75%.