Russian crude oil exports have declined, and rising oil prices are also difficult to reverse.

In the four weeks leading up to June 1, Russian crude oil exports volume decreased once again, as the significant drop in export quantity offset the first price increase of Russia's main export grade crude oil in nearly two months. Data from tanker tracking agencies shows that in the four weeks leading up to June 1, the average daily export volume was 3.24 million barrels, a decrease of 170,000 barrels per day compared to the previous reporting period ending on May 25. During a meeting last Saturday with major OPEC+ members, Russia opposed a third significant increase in production targets, indicating that Russia is more concerned about oil prices rather than production levels. This may reflect that Russia could have difficulties in increasing production as much as possible within the allowed range. Russia's oil production data is classified, making it difficult to verify official figures. Monitoring export levels in the coming weeks may be the best indicator of Russia's capacity to increase production.