Crude oil prices surge as geopolitical concerns intensify, with OPEC+ increasing production below expectations.

Crude oil prices surged on Monday as OPEC+ agreed to a production increase lower than some had feared, and concerns about geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and Iran intensified. Despite opposition from countries like Russia, OPEC and its allies agreed on Saturday to increase daily production by 411,000 barrels in July. Some countries lobbied for a pause in the production increase in July, leading to differing views on further production increases in the coming months among forecasters. WTI crude oil rose by 5.1% on Monday before falling along with the overall financial markets. The rally may have also benefited from short positions being closed out following the announcement of the OPEC+ decision. The group had been considering a larger production hike late last week, and speculative short positions in global benchmark Brent crude reached their highest level since October last year ahead of the OPEC+ meeting. "The worst fears have dissipated," said Keshav Lohiya, founder of consultancy Oilytics. "Brent short positions are at their highest level since 2025, which makes sense given the bearish news from OPEC. However, if the fundamentals of the physical market continue to remain healthy, it also creates conditions for a price surge."