Trade situation causing inflation divide, European Central Bank is likely to cut interest rates for the last time.

date
04/06/2025
The European Central Bank is about to carry out its final interest rate cut, and the increasingly complex inflation outlook may highlight internal divisions. With the fading price risks, officials have already cut interest rates seven times in the past year with almost no friction within the governing council. It is expected that on Thursday, they will take their eighth action, lowering the deposit rate to 2%. However, some hope this is the bottom, as they worry European governments are about to engage in excessive spending, while others hope for more rate cuts to support fragile economic growth. The key issue lies in Donald Trump's tariffs - especially their chain reaction on prices in the Eurozone. The ECB is developing various plans, trying to better grasp the upcoming situation, but lacks confidence in any specific outcome. One policymaker believes the likelihood of achieving the baseline assumption is less than 50%.