CITIC Securities: The risk of a substantial increase in long-term interest rates in the short term is limited, but a breakthrough downwards still needs to wait for triggering.

CITIC Securities released a research report pointing out that since May, long-term bond interest rates have been weakly volatile. Recently, investors have two major concerns about the bond market: one is the worry that some institutions will have a large number of preventive redemptions of funds, and the other is the worry that near the end of the quarter, banks will actively sell bonds to realize floating profits in OCI accounts. Based on data observations, CITIC Securities believes that institutional behavior disturbance is not the primary factor affecting the pricing of the bond market in the short term. The direction of investor choice and market sentiment are still based on judgments and reflections on macro factors such as liquidity, tariffs, and fundamentals. The risk of a significant upward adjustment in long-term bond interest rates in the short term is limited, but a downward breakthrough still needs to wait for triggering. Whether the short end can loosen remains the focus of the market.