CITIC Securities: Still expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates no more than 2 times this year.

CITIC Securities released a research report stating that it is expected that global economic growth will continue to decline in the second half of 2025. Overseas inflation stickiness is gradually fading out of the market view, and tariffs are becoming a new key variable. The commodity inflation spurred by tariffs may cause the overall US CPI to rebound year-on-year in the second half of the year. CITIC Securities still expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates less than or equal to two times this year, possibly cutting rates again at the September meeting; the European Central Bank may maintain the deposit facility rate at 2% after a 25bps cut in June; the Bank of Japan may wait for progress in US-Japan tariff negotiations and raise rates by 25bps again in the third quarter. The US tax reduction bill may face obstacles in legislation, but the direction of expansion is clear, and the path of fiscal expansion in the EU is also relatively clear. In terms of asset allocation, it is recommended to look for trading opportunities in various assets in high volatility.