The initial number of applicants exceeded expectations slightly, and uncertainty in trade policies has dragged down the labor market.

Data from the US Department of Labor on Thursday showed that the number of initial jobless claims in the US reached 240,000, higher than the expected 230,000. This indicates that with the labor market environment remaining loose, the unemployment rate in May may have risen. Despite companies tending to retain employees during and after the pandemic due to difficulty in hiring, the Trump administration's aggressive trade policies have caused economic uncertainty, leading to an increase in layoffs and making it difficult for companies to formulate long-term plans. A report from the American Bank Institute previously showed that from February to April, there was a significant increase in high-income families receiving unemployment benefits compared to the previous year, and a significant increase in the number of middle- and low-income families applying for benefits in April. Economists predict that due to the difficulty in adjusting for seasonal fluctuations, the number of initial jobless claims in June may surpass the range of 205,000 to 243,000 for this year, but this trend is similar to recent years and may not necessarily reflect a substantial change in the labor market conditions. Meeting minutes from the Federal Reserve this morning showed that while policymakers believe the labor market is generally balanced, they "assess that there is a risk of weakening in the labor market in the coming months" and point out that the employment outlook "has a significant amount of uncertainty," the outcome of which "largely depends on the evolution of trade and other government policies."