Ukrainian bonds are dragged down by the peace process, with poor performance, while markets in neighboring Eastern European countries are soaring.

Due to the dim prospects of a peace agreement facilitated by Trump, Ukrainian dollar bonds have brought investors over 10% losses since 2025, the worst performer among emerging and frontier markets. Earlier in the year, some Ukrainian bonds almost doubled in price since a restructuring in August last year, boosting the entire Eastern European market due to bets on a ceasefire. London hedge fund Frontier Road has shifted towards corporate bonds to avoid geopolitical risks, while Bank of America, though maintaining an overweight recommendation, warns of the "downside risks" of continuing conflicts, with Morgan Stanley predicting conflicts to persist until 2025. "The market has fallen back to the pre-Trump election levels," said Viktor Szabo, managing director of Amundi Investments. Warsaw, Prague, and Budapest's main stock indices all have USD returns of over 30% this year, with the Hungarian forint, Czech koruna, and Polish zloty leading the gains among emerging market currencies. However, the price of Ukrainian zero-coupon bonds due in 2035 has fallen from 70 cents in February to 50 cents.