CITIC Securities: Trump administration's tariff policy is fluctuating, gold is the most certain in major asset classes, US stocks have a lower success rate.

CITIC Securities released a research report stating that the recent Trump administration's tariff policy has been changing back and forth, generally shifting towards moderation. CITIC Securities believes that this shift is not stable, and may only be a temporary appeasement measure under market pressure. Subsequent tariff frictions may still continue, or may not escalate until the end of this year or early next year. The tax cut bill is also a core demand of Trump. If successfully implemented, it will benefit the short-term performance and bring forward certainty to the economy, but it is necessary to observe Trump's policy direction choices. In terms of major asset classes, gold remains the most certain, US bonds may continue to fluctuate within a range, US stocks have a lower success rate, and the US dollar may fluctuate weakly. If Trump focuses on domestic affairs, the turning points for US stocks and the US dollar may come earlier.