A truce in Sino-US trade or easing inflation pressure in the United States may simultaneously reduce the risk of economic recession.

According to the latest survey obtained by the Securities Times APP, with the United States and China reaching a phased trade agreement, economists generally expect that the inflationary pressure in the United States will ease, and the short-term risk of economic recession will also decrease. During the period from May 16th to 21st, 86 surveyed economists lowered their peak forecast for the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE, a core inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve) at the end of 2025 from 3.2% in April to 3.1%, while also lowering their expectations for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) at the beginning of 2026.