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Daiwa expresses a more optimistic view on the EBITDA growth of Megadata in the second to fourth quarters of 2025, before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization, and believes that there is upside to the full-year EBITDA guidance, which will drive the company to further deleverage. At the same time, the bank sees strong demand for the DayOne data center in the first quarter of 2025, paving the way for future financing rounds. The bank believes that the current risk-return ratio is attractive because Megadata China's implied valuation is lower than Megadata's own valuation multiples and the valuation multiples of the real estate investment trust (REIT) IPO that Megadata's peers are about to launch. The key catalysts for the stock, according to the bank, include the C-REIT IPO and changes in Megadata's main listing status in Hong Kong. Daiwa has raised its EBITDA forecast for Megadata from 2025 to 2027 by 1% to 3%, but has lowered its earnings per share forecast for 2026 to 2027 by 6% to 10% due to an increase in share capital. The bank reaffirms its "Buy" rating and lowers its 12-month target price from HK$49 to HK$44.
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