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The Zhongjin report states that we define the "effective replacement cycle" as the ratio of a country's car ownership to its annual sales. In mature car markets, such as the United States, the average ratio is 20 times, while in Japan and South Korea, the average is 13-14 times. Looking ahead, assuming that China's passenger car ownership per thousand people increases to 300 vehicles, the "effective replacement cycle" would reach 15 times. This corresponds to a potential stable domestic sales volume of 28 million vehicles, an increase of about 20% compared to 2024. To effectively stimulate car purchase demand, we believe that economic growth is core, as it raises the ceiling for car ownership. Furthermore, strengthening infrastructure, improving the car-use environment, and increasing social carrying capacity are also important. Additionally, stimulating replacement potential through trade-ins and expanding subsidy scope still have significant operational space. Furthermore, improving the system of the used car market, reducing consumption thresholds, improving vehicle circulation efficiency, and ultimately driving new car consumption are all important measures.
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