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Moody's downgrade of the United States' sovereign credit rating highlights a deeper issue: the long-standing fiscal optimism and the risks of significantly rising yields in the United States. Although there is a global trend of debt forecasting errors, the United States stands out in the persistence and magnitude of budget deficit forecasting errors. Structural factors can explain this phenomenon: the reserve currency status of the US dollar, the lack of binding fiscal rules, and electoral cycles that encourage short-term generous policies. Indeed, historical data shows that the US GDP growth rate has consistently exceeded the cost of borrowing, suggesting that some fiscal spending may still help promote economic growth. In addition, US Treasury bond yields have been high, theoretically offering hedging attractiveness during risk aversion shocks. However, actual data is not optimistic. During the period from February 19 to April 8, 2025, when the S&P 500 index fell by 19%, the 10-year Treasury bond yield only decreased by 24 basis points - far lower than the decline seen in similar periods in the early 21st century.