Spinnaker Investment Group: The uncertainty brought by tariffs will continue, and it is expected that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates before September.

Matthias Scheiber, Senior Portfolio Manager and Head of the Multi-Asset Solutions Team at Spinnaker Investment Management, believes that the uncertainty brought by the US tariff policy will persist. As negotiations among countries take time, he points to the experience of Brexit in the UK, indicating that the impact on the economic markets could last for years. He expects stagflation in the US, with economic growth slowing down, while other international markets including Europe are expected to see the opposite trend. Therefore, he predicts that apart from the US, central banks in other countries will continue to cut interest rates. Additionally, Scheiber anticipates that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates before September, as authorities are still waiting for more clear inflation data and will need to assess the extent of economic slowdown and the impact of tariffs. He expects the Federal Reserve to not cut rates more than twice within the year. In terms of assets, he mentioned that the bank is currently increasing holdings in international markets outside the US, including Europe and emerging markets, while reducing exposure to US equities and bonds. He reminds investors to pay attention not only to trade data, but also to international capital flows, as tariff policies will lead to a diversification of export trade to different countries and a repositioning of funds.