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Goldman Sachs stated in a report that the likelihood of a future economic recession in the United States has decreased due to the easing of trade tensions. The economic experts at Goldman Sachs have lowered the probability of a US economic recession from 45% to 35%, pointing out that recent agreements will result in a slightly lower increase in actual tariff rates than expected. They also stated that the Trump administration may announce additional preliminary trade agreements in the coming weeks, further reducing the actual tariff rates in the US.
Given the development of the trade situation and significant easing of financial conditions in the past month, Goldman Sachs has raised its expectations for US economic growth in 2025 by 0.5 percentage points to 1.0% and has delayed the expected time for the Fed to begin cutting interest rates from July to December.
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