Goldman Sachs pushes back expectations for the Federal Reserve interest rate cut to the end of the year, lowering the possibility of a US recession.

Goldman Sachs has adjusted its expected timing for the next interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve to December. Analysts at the bank said, "Given the developments and significantly looser financial conditions last month, we have raised our forecast for the annual economic growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2025 in the United States by 0.5 percentage points to 1%, and reduced the likelihood of an economic recession in the next 12 months to 35%. At the same time, we have lowered our expectations for the inflation path of core personal consumption expenditures, forecasting a peak of 3.6%."