The impact of tariffs shock is difficult to eliminate, and long-term US bond yields remain high.

date
15/05/2025
Since President Trump announced the imposition of additional tariffs causing market turmoil, the stock market has rebounded. However, there are still some issues in the bond market. According to Tradeweb's data, long-term US Treasury bond prices have been falling since April 2, with the benchmark 10-year US bond yield rising to around 4.37%. Meanwhile, short-term yields are falling as the market bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates to address the economic slowdown. Wall Street refers to this unusual divergence as a "steepening curve", which has presented challenges for decision-makers and increased borrowing costs for consumers. One major reason for this is uncertainty about inflation. While investors believe that inflation and interest rates will fall in the coming years, Trump's inconsistent trade policies have reduced their confidence in these predictions. Therefore, they are demanding higher yields to compensate for the risks of holding US Treasury bonds in the long term, a form of additional compensation known as a term premium.