Xiao Mo: Trump is expected to repeat the mistakes of Brexit, causing long-term damage to the U.S. economy.

The economist team at JPMorgan believes that President Trump's actions to reshape the trade order through tariff measures may repeat the mistakes of Brexit, causing long-term chronic destructive damage to the economy. According to their latest report, the actions of the United States and the United Kingdom reflect their concerns about globalization, the decline of manufacturing, and immigration issues. They believe that Brexit has caused the UK to fall into a brief recession, but the bigger issue is the slow, long-term damage, including slowing consumer spending growth, reduced business investment, currency depreciation, and inflation above target levels. Even if the Bank of England quickly cuts interest rates and reintroduces quantitative easing measures to eventually revive local economic growth, there will be long-term damage, including a continued decline in trade volumes with other countries, a decrease in immigration leading to labor shortages, and a contraction in long-term investments. JPMorgan economists believe that Trump's push for tariff measures is leading the United States down a similar path. They believe that even if the US economy avoids short-term recession, long-term growth will inevitably slow, foreign investment will decrease, and productivity will be under pressure. They estimate that the US trade shock may cause an immediate crisis, but the long-term impact is incalculable.