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Goldman Sachs warns that the stock market faces a risk of nearly 20% decline, with a recession being a huge risk for the market. In their podcast on Thursday, Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius and Chief Global Equity Strategist Peter Oppenheimer appeared particularly cautious. Hatzius reiterated his forecast that there is a 45% chance of a U.S. economic recession in the next 12 months. He acknowledged that recent data has been mixed, with soft data such as sentiment surveys and strong data such as the latest nonfarm payroll numbers. Goldman Sachs Chief Political Economist also warned that comments from the U.S. President regarding trade agreements with the UK suggest that many countries may face higher tariffs before Trump's re-election.
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