Goldman Sachs warns that due to the impact of "recession risk", the US stock market may fall by about 20%.

Goldman Sachs said that the stock market faces a nearly 20% risk of decline, with a recession posing a significant risk to the stock market. In Thursday's podcast, Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius and Chief Global Equity Strategist Peter Oppenheimer sounded particularly cautious. Hatzius reiterated that he estimates a 45% chance of a US economic recession in the next 12 months. He acknowledged that recent data has been mixed, with soft data like sentiment surveys and stronger data like the latest nonfarm payroll figures. Goldman Sachs' Chief Political Economist warned that comments from the US President regarding a trade agreement with the UK suggest that many countries could ultimately face higher tariffs than before Trump's re-election.