Shenwan Hongyuan: The "export scramble" effect may continue until May, and it is expected that the export scramble effect in China may diminish in June.

A research report by Shenwan Hongyuan stated that looking ahead, leading indicators show that the "grabbing export" effect may continue until May, but June export data may face uncertainty. The import of processing trade is an observation indicator leading the "accelerate import of components-domestic processing production-grab export" logic by about a month. The data shows that in April, the import of processing trade increased by 0.6% to 5.0% compared to the previous month, indicating that the "grab export" will continue in May. From a medium-term perspective, the booking throughput of the Port of Los Angeles in late May and the export price index of small commodities in Yiwu since late April have both significantly increased, indicating that the "grabbing export" in May is expected to continue. However, the tariff suspension period for emerging economies is 90 days, and considering the one-month delay for goods from emerging countries to reach the United States, it is expected that the "grabbing export" effect in China may fade in June.