New York Fed Survey: US Consumer's Mid-Term Inflation Expectations Rise to Near Three-Year High

According to the monthly survey released by the New York Fed, US consumers' mid-term inflation expectations rose to a nearly three-year high in April, while their views on the job market deteriorated. The survey shows that consumers' median estimate for inflation over the next three years rose to 3.2% in April, reaching the highest level since July 2022. However, expectations for inflation over the next year remained stable, with expectations for long-term inflation rates slightly decreasing to 2.7%. Federal Reserve officials are closely monitoring US consumers' expectations for future price pressures to assess the impact of policy changes by US President Donald Trump, especially adjustments in trade policies, on whether they may trigger sustained inflation. The scope and duration of tariffs are still unclear, which may increase uncertainty among consumers regarding future inflation. The Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday that it would maintain interest rates unchanged, stating that the economy remains strong but uncertainties about the outlook are increasing. Recent surveys also show a sharp deterioration in household confidence.