Huatai Securities: The Fed's future interest rate cuts will depend on the results of trade negotiations and actual economic data, especially employment data.

Huatai Securities Research Report pointed out that although recent soft data in the United States has weakened overall, hard data remains stable, and there is considerable uncertainty in tariff policies and the outlook for unemployment rates/inflation. The May meeting showed that the Federal Reserve maintained its wait-and-see stance and was not in a hurry to cut interest rates. The plan is to wait for the situation to become clearer before taking action, and the decision to cut interest rates will depend on the balance between unemployment rates and inflation. Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates will mainly depend on the trend of hard data, especially employment data. If employment data shows a significant weakening before the June meeting, while inflation pressures remain under control in April and May, then there is still a certain probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in June. Otherwise, the decision to cut interest rates by the Federal Reserve may be postponed to July or later. In the future, we will continue to focus on changes in U.S. tariff policies and hard data, including employment data, to assess the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates.