Lates News

Guosen Securities research report believes that the unexpected increase in production by OPEC+ during the "May Day" holiday period has caused a short-term seismic shock in the oil market. The unexpected aspect of this meeting is not only the increase in production beyond expectations, but also concerns about the shift in OPEC+'s policy towards supporting oil prices since 2022 and subsequent diplomatic maneuvering. The main reason for the unexpected increase in production this time is related to the leading countries such as Saudi Arabia hoping to maintain the discipline of the organization and the upcoming diplomatic activities between the United States and Saudi Arabia. The current global crude oil supply-demand structure is gradually reversing and showing a "loose balance" state. If OPEC further increases production, it will gradually show a phenomenon of "oversupply", which may still create pressure on the oil market in the future. Overall, due to the disruption of supply and risk events, international oil prices may still oscillate weakly. If the expectations of macroeconomic readings weakening due to tariff disturbances are realized, it will form a new drag on oil prices. Currently, the judgment is to maintain the performance of the commodity market with gold > copper > oil.