CITIC Securities: International oil prices may continue to fluctuate weakly overall amid supply and risk event disruptions.

Zhongxin Securities' research report believes that during the "May Day" holiday period, OPEC+'s plan to increase production beyond expectations caused a short-term shock in the oil market. The unexpected aspect of this meeting is not only the increase in production beyond expectations, but also concerns about the shift in OPEC+'s policy towards supporting oil prices since 2022 and the subsequent diplomatic bargaining. The main reason for the unexpected increase in production this time is related to the desire of leading countries like Saudi Arabia to maintain the discipline of the organization and the upcoming diplomatic activities between the US and Saudi Arabia. The current global oil supply-demand structure is gradually reversing and showing a "loose balance" state. If OPEC further increases production, there will gradually be a phenomenon of "supply exceeding demand," and there may still be pressure in the oil market in the future. Overall, due to disruptions in supply and risk events, international oil prices may still oscillate weakly, and if the expectation of weakening macroeconomic data under tariff disruptions is realized, it will form a new drag on oil prices. Currently, the judgment is that in the commodity market, gold > copper > oil will perform.