India is likely to take military action against Pakistan within 24 to 36 hours? Expert: unlikely to escalate into a full-scale war.
According to Xinhua News Agency, Pakistan's Minister of Information and Broadcasting, Fawad Chaudhry, said in the early hours of April 30th that India may take military action against Pakistan in the next 24 to 36 hours, and any military adventurism by India will be met with a resolute and decisive response from Pakistan. However, according to Lin Minwang, Deputy Director of the Center for South Asian Studies at Fudan University, the possibility of a full-scale war breaking out between India and Pakistan is small.
Lin Minwang pointed out that as the victim of the recent shooting incident, India clearly needs to show some accountability to the public, and "venting" against Pakistan is its usual operation. "India has held several meetings and discussed measures with the military, and Modi has been very active on social media. If they were really going to take action, they wouldn't usually do it like this." Lin Minwang believes that Modi's authorization of military action is more of a demonstration to Pakistan and a way to ease tensions domestically.
On the other hand, despite harsh words from Pakistan's Minister of Railways about responding to a cut-off of water supply with a cut-off of electricity, Pakistan is taking a cautious attitude towards war. Pakistan's Defense Minister, Pervez Khattak, stated that the tense situation between the two countries may escalate, but it is not likely to develop into a nuclear war. Lin Minwang believes that India and Pakistan may engage in a back-and-forth, which is in line with their usual pattern of interaction - escalating conflicts and then gradually cooling down.
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