Before the release of the PCE data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 94%.

According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in May is 94%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 6%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 32.9%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 63.2%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 3.9%.