Economist: The contraction of the U.S. economy in the first quarter cannot be solely attributed to imports.

The United States' economic growth sharply slowed in the first quarter of 2025, as businesses stockpiled goods before President Trump's comprehensive tariff policies took effect. However, economists warned that the report may not fully reflect the state of economic growth, pointing out that the surge in imports due to businesses rushing to act before the tariffs could lead to noisy data. Economists noted that while the increase in imports may appear to lower the pace of economic growth, it does not tell the whole story. Michael Pearce, Deputy Chief US Economist at the Oxford Economics Research Institute, wrote, "There has never been a recession caused by imports. Although imports are recorded as a subtraction from GDP, they show offsetting positive growth in other aspects, such as increases in consumption or business investment, or are recorded as increases in inventory."