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The probability of a recession in the US this year is 74%.

01/05/2025

Unexpectedly, the GDP of the United States shrank in the first quarter, and the risk of a recession in the US economy has surged. The US financial trading and forecasting platform Kalshi currently predicts a 74% probability of a recession in the US economy this year.

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2 m ago

The Mexican Ministry of Finance stated that stable employment, slowing inflation, and foreign investment all work together to mitigate the impact of global uncertainty.

9 m ago

Bank of Canada Minutes: The Governing Council believes it is difficult to predict the impact of conflicting pressures on prices after April.

9 m ago

Bank of Canada Meeting Minutes: Given the possibility of escalating inflationary pressures from tariffs in the near future, those in favor of maintaining the status quo believe that another rate cut may be premature. Members who support no changes hope to receive more information about American tariffs and are in favor of taking a wait-and-see approach.

10 m ago

Minutes of the Bank of Canada meeting: Members in favor of lowering interest rates emphasized the need to take timely action, considering the lag in the transmission of monetary policy actions to the economy and inflation. Members in favor of lowering interest rates stated that as long as medium- to long-term inflation expectations remain stable, the central bank has flexibility to further lower interest rates. Supporters of lowering interest rates mentioned recent easing of inflation risks and signs of economic weakening.

10 m ago

Bank of Canada Meeting Minutes: Although there are differing viewpoints, everyone agrees that there is a high degree of uncertainty, and the situation may change rapidly.

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